The Backtest Blog
In-depth analysis, strategy breakdowns, and data-driven insights. No opinions, just results.
Backtesting Options Strategies: The Complete Guide for 2026
Everything you need to know about backtesting options strategies, from covered calls to iron condors, with real data examples.
Read article →SPY vs QQQ: 20-Year Backtest Comparison
We ran a comprehensive 20-year backtest comparing SPY and QQQ across multiple metrics. The results might surprise you.
March 28, 2026
Moving Average Crossover: Does It Actually Work?
The 50/200 moving average crossover is one of the most popular trading signals. We backtested it across 15 years of data.
March 22, 2026
Selling Weekly Puts on SPY: 5-Year Backtest Results
Is selling weekly puts on SPY a reliable income strategy? We analyzed 260 weeks of data to find out.
March 15, 2026
Crypto Backtesting: Bitcoin Dollar-Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum
Should you DCA into Bitcoin or invest a lump sum? We backtested both approaches across multiple time periods.
March 8, 2026
Futures vs ETFs for Index Trading: Which Performs Better?
We compared trading S&P 500 futures (ES) against SPY for short-term and long-term strategies.
March 1, 2026
The Best RSI Settings: We Tested Every Combination
RSI 14 is the default, but is it the best? We tested RSI periods from 2 to 50 across 15 years of data.
February 22, 2026
How to Backtest a Trading Strategy Without Coding
You don't need to be a programmer to backtest trading strategies. Here are the best no-code tools and methods.
February 15, 2026
Wheel Strategy Backtest: The Truth About This Popular Options Method
The Wheel Strategy is hugely popular on Reddit. We backtested it on 5 stocks to see if the hype is justified.
February 8, 2026
Mean Reversion vs Trend Following: Which Strategy Wins?
Two opposing philosophies, one backtest. We compared mean reversion and trend following across multiple markets.
February 1, 2026
Backtesting the 50/200 Moving Average Crossover: Does It Still Work?
We put the classic golden cross and death cross strategy through rigorous backtesting across multiple decades of market data to see if this popular signal still delivers.
January 8, 2025
How to Backtest Iron Condor Strategies with Historical Options Data
A comprehensive guide to backtesting iron condor strategies using historical options chains, including data sources, setup parameters, and performance metrics that matter.
January 22, 2025
RSI Mean Reversion Strategy: A Complete Backtest Guide
Discover how the RSI mean reversion strategy performs across different markets and timeframes with our detailed backtesting results and optimization insights.
February 5, 2025
Monte Carlo Simulation for Trading Strategies: Why One Backtest Is Not Enough
Learn why a single backtest equity curve can be misleading and how Monte Carlo simulation reveals the true range of possible outcomes for your trading strategy.
February 19, 2025
Backtesting MACD Divergence Signals: Separating Myth from Reality
MACD divergence is one of the most discussed technical signals. Our rigorous backtesting reveals whether bullish and bearish divergences actually predict reversals.
March 10, 2025
Walk-Forward Analysis: The Gold Standard of Strategy Validation
Walk-forward analysis is the most robust method for validating trading strategies. Learn how to implement it correctly and interpret the results to avoid overfitting.
March 25, 2025
Backtesting Covered Call Strategies on Dividend Stocks
Combining covered calls with high-dividend stocks is a popular income strategy. Our backtest reveals the optimal parameters and whether the combination truly outperforms.
April 12, 2025
Python Backtesting Frameworks Compared: Backtrader vs Zipline vs VectorBT
A hands-on comparison of the three most popular Python backtesting libraries, with performance benchmarks, code examples, and recommendations for different use cases.
April 28, 2025
Bollinger Band Squeeze Strategy: Backtesting Volatility Breakouts
The Bollinger Band squeeze identifies periods of low volatility that often precede explosive moves. Our backtest quantifies this edge and reveals the best entry techniques.
May 15, 2025
Sector Rotation Backtesting: Can You Time the Business Cycle?
We backtest multiple sector rotation strategies to determine whether systematic rotation between market sectors can generate alpha over buy-and-hold approaches.
June 2, 2025
Backtesting Pairs Trading: Statistical Arbitrage for Retail Traders
Pairs trading exploits the mean-reverting relationship between correlated stocks. Learn how to identify pairs, backtest the strategy, and understand its current viability.
June 20, 2025
Backtesting Crypto Momentum Strategies: Lessons from a Wild Market
Cryptocurrency markets exhibit strong momentum effects. We backtest systematic momentum strategies on crypto and explore why traditional parameters need adjustment.
July 8, 2025
The Complete Guide to Backtesting LEAPS Options Strategies
LEAPS provide leveraged exposure with defined risk. We backtest various LEAPS strategies including deep ITM calls, poor mans covered calls, and LEAPS spreads.
July 25, 2025
Backtesting Forex Mean Reversion on Major Currency Pairs
Do currency pairs mean-revert? We backtest RSI-based and Bollinger Band mean reversion strategies on major forex pairs to answer this question definitively.
August 11, 2025
Portfolio Allocation Backtesting: 60/40 vs All-Weather vs Risk Parity
We backtest the most popular portfolio allocation strategies across multiple decades to determine which approach delivers the best risk-adjusted returns for long-term investors.
August 28, 2025
Backtesting the VIX Term Structure: Trading Volatility ETFs Systematically
The VIX term structure provides predictable signals for trading volatility ETFs. We backtest contango and backwardation strategies on VXX, UVXY, and SVXY.
September 15, 2025
How to Avoid Overfitting: The Biggest Mistake in Backtesting
Overfitting is the number one reason backtested strategies fail in live trading. Learn to identify, prevent, and test for overfitting in your strategy development process.
October 3, 2025
Backtesting Momentum Factor Investing with ETFs
Momentum is one of the strongest factors in finance. We backtest various momentum ETF strategies including cross-asset momentum, dual momentum, and momentum with value tilt.
October 20, 2025
Backtesting Options Wheel Strategy: Income Generation Under the Microscope
The wheel strategy (selling puts then covered calls) is wildly popular among income traders. Our comprehensive backtest reveals its true performance versus simpler alternatives.
November 7, 2025
Building Your First Backtest in Python: A Step-by-Step Tutorial
A beginner-friendly guide to writing your first trading strategy backtest in Python using pandas, from data acquisition to performance analysis.
November 24, 2025
Backtesting Mean Reversion in ETFs: Buying the Dip Systematically
Is buying the dip in ETFs a viable systematic strategy? We backtest multiple mean reversion approaches on sector and broad market ETFs with surprising results.
December 12, 2025
Backtesting Position Sizing: How Much Capital to Risk Per Trade
Position sizing determines whether a winning strategy makes you rich or blows up your account. We backtest fixed fractional, Kelly criterion, and volatility-based approaches.
January 5, 2026
Backtesting Trend Following on Commodities: CTA Strategies for Retail Traders
Commodity Trading Advisors have profited from trend following for decades. We backtest classic CTA strategies on commodity futures using ETF proxies accessible to retail traders.
January 22, 2026
Backtesting the Straddle Selling Strategy Around Earnings
Selling straddles before earnings exploits implied volatility overpricing. Our backtest reveals win rates, optimal timing, and which stocks provide the best opportunities.
February 8, 2026
Backtesting Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum Investing
The eternal debate: invest all at once or spread it out? We backtest both approaches across every possible starting point in market history to provide a definitive answer.
February 25, 2026
Backtesting Bitcoin Buy-the-Dip Strategies: What Actually Works
We tested multiple BTC buy-the-dip strategies across bull and bear markets to find which percentage drops offer the best risk-adjusted entries.
January 8, 2025
Forex Carry Trade Backtest: Does Holding High-Yield Currencies Still Work?
We backtested the classic carry trade strategy across major and emerging market currency pairs to see if interest rate differentials still generate alpha.
January 22, 2025
ETF Sector Rotation: Backtesting Momentum-Based Allocation
A comprehensive backtest of momentum-based sector rotation using SPDR sector ETFs shows when this strategy shines and when it fails spectacularly.
February 5, 2025
VIX Mean Reversion Strategy: Backtesting Volatility Spikes
Volatility always reverts to the mean eventually. We backtested strategies that sell volatility after VIX spikes to quantify the edge and the risk.
February 19, 2025
Backtesting Dividend Growth Investing: Total Returns vs. The S&P 500
Does focusing on companies that consistently grow their dividends actually beat the market? Our 20-year backtest reveals the nuanced truth.
March 4, 2025
Market Timing with the 200-Day Moving Average: A Comprehensive Backtest
The 200-day moving average is the most popular timing signal in existence. Our backtest across multiple asset classes reveals its true strengths and limitations.
March 18, 2025
Position Sizing Showdown: Fixed Fractional vs. Kelly Criterion Backtest
Your position sizing method can matter more than your entry signal. We backtested fixed fractional, full Kelly, half Kelly, and fixed dollar sizing head-to-head.
April 2, 2025
Ethereum DeFi Yield Farming Backtest: Historical APY vs. Reality
DeFi protocols advertise astronomical APYs but what do realized returns look like after impermanent loss, gas fees, and token depreciation? We backtested to find out.
April 16, 2025
Stop-Loss Optimization: Backtesting Tight vs. Wide Stops Across Markets
Where you place your stop-loss can make or break a strategy. We backtested ATR-based stops from 0.5x to 5x across stocks, forex, and futures.
May 1, 2025
Correlation Breakdown: Backtesting Diversification When It Matters Most
Correlations spike during market crashes, exactly when diversification is needed most. We quantified this effect and tested strategies to combat it.
May 15, 2025
Backtesting Market Regime Detection: Bull, Bear, and Sideways Filters
Different strategies work in different regimes. We backtested multiple regime detection methods to find which most reliably identifies the current market environment.
June 2, 2025
Earnings Season Options Strategies: A Backtest of Straddles and Iron Condors
Options prices inflate before earnings. We backtested selling that premium with straddles and iron condors across 500 earnings events to quantify the edge.
June 18, 2025
Seasonal Patterns in the Stock Market: Backtesting Sell in May and Other Anomalies
Sell in May, the January effect, and other calendar anomalies are market folklore. Our backtest across 30 years determines which still have statistical validity.
July 3, 2025
Drawdown Analysis: How Deep and How Long Can You Survive?
Maximum drawdown gets all the attention, but drawdown duration is what actually breaks traders. We analyzed historical drawdown profiles across strategies and asset classes.
July 20, 2025
Backtesting the Kelly Criterion in Practice: From Theory to Trading
The Kelly criterion promises mathematically optimal growth. We backtested it across real trading strategies to see how theory meets the messy reality of markets.
August 5, 2025
Backtesting Forex Breakout Strategies: London and New York Sessions
Session breakout strategies exploit the volatility expansion at market opens. We backtested London and New York session breakouts across major pairs from 2015-2025.
August 22, 2025
BTC-ETH Pair Trading: Backtesting Crypto Relative Value Strategies
Bitcoin and Ethereum move together but not identically. We backtested mean reversion and momentum strategies on the ETH/BTC ratio to find exploitable divergences.
September 8, 2025
Backtesting the Covered Call Strategy: Income vs. Opportunity Cost
Covered calls are marketed as free income. Our 15-year backtest on SPY and individual stocks reveals the true cost of capping your upside.
September 25, 2025
Backtesting Dual Momentum: Gary Antonaccis Strategy Put to the Test
Dual momentum combines absolute and relative momentum for market timing. We backtested the original strategy and several variations to evaluate its ongoing effectiveness.
October 10, 2025
Backtesting Mean Reversion in Crypto: RSI Strategies on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Crypto markets are known for trends, but do mean reversion signals like oversold RSI work for timing entries? We tested RSI strategies across BTC, ETH, and major altcoins.
October 28, 2025
Volatility Targeting: Backtesting Constant Risk Allocation
Instead of holding a fixed allocation, volatility targeting adjusts exposure to maintain consistent portfolio risk. Our backtest shows dramatic improvement in risk-adjusted returns.
November 12, 2025
Backtesting Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Analysis
The DCA vs. lump sum debate is perennial. We ran 10,000 historical simulations to determine when each approach wins and by how much.
November 28, 2025
Backtesting the VIX Term Structure: Contango and Backwardation Signals
The VIX futures curve contains predictive information about future market returns. We backtested strategies that exploit the term structure shape for timing and volatility trading.
December 15, 2025
Backtesting Forex Moving Average Crossover Systems: Are They Dead?
Moving average crossovers were once the bread and butter of forex trading. We tested every common MA combination from 2010-2025 to see if any still produce edge.
January 6, 2026
Backtesting Equal Weight vs. Market Cap Weight: The Small-Cap Tilt Effect
Equal-weight ETFs systematically overweight smaller companies. We backtested this approach against cap-weighted benchmarks to quantify the small-cap tilt premium.
January 22, 2026
Backtrader vs Zipline: Which Python Backtesting Framework Is Actually Faster in 2026
The two most-recommended Python backtesting libraries have wildly different performance profiles and workflows. Here is a head-to-head comparison using the same strategy on the same data.
September 25, 2026
VectorBT vs Backtrader: Speed vs Features in the Python Backtesting Wars
VectorBT is 30x faster than Backtrader. Backtrader has 5x the feature surface. Here is when raw speed matters and when it doesn't.
September 27, 2026
The Best Backtesting Library for Options Traders in 2026
Most Python backtesting libraries treat options as an afterthought. These are the frameworks that actually model spreads, greeks, and expiration dynamics correctly.
September 29, 2026
Free vs Paid Backtesting Tools: When Is Paid Actually Worth It?
The free Python backtesting stack is genuinely competitive with $1,000/year paid platforms — for most users. Here is when paid tools earn their price tag and when they don't.
October 1, 2026
Walk-Forward Optimization: The Research Methodology That Separates Good Strategies From Lucky Ones
Standard backtest optimization overfits to historical data. Walk-forward optimization is the research-supported methodology that produces strategies which actually survive in live trading.
October 18, 2026
Why Most 10-Year Backtests Lie: The Hidden Biases in Long-Period Testing
Long-period backtests sound impressive but hide multiple biases that make results overstated. Here are the specific biases to watch for and how to correct them.
October 20, 2026
Monte Carlo Analysis for Strategy Robustness: Beyond the Single Backtest Number
A single backtest produces one performance curve. Monte Carlo analysis tells you the realistic range of outcomes your strategy might produce. Here is how to use it.
October 23, 2026
Transaction Cost Analysis: Why Your Backtest Lies About What You Will Pay
Transaction costs in backtests are typically modeled too simply or ignored entirely. The actual costs of trading can turn backtested winners into live losers.
October 26, 2026
Iron Condor Profit Zones Explained: Where Your Short Strikes Should Actually Go
Iron condor profit zones are often chosen by delta or expected move, but the math is more nuanced. Here is how to think about strike selection based on your actual risk-reward goals.
October 29, 2026
Credit Spread Risk Management: Research-Supported Framework
Credit spreads look safer than naked options but carry specific risks that most traders underestimate. Here is what the research supports about managing credit spread positions.
November 1, 2026
Theta Decay Patterns: What Actually Happens to Options Over Time
Theta decay is not linear. Understanding specific decay patterns helps you choose expirations that match your strategy.
November 4, 2026
IV Crush Timing: Why Options Lose Value After Earnings
Buying calls before earnings and seeing them lose value even when the stock moves up is the classic IV crush experience. Here is what happens and when to use it.
November 7, 2026
The Wheel Strategy: A Decade of Backtest Data
The wheel strategy is popular retail options approach. A decade of data reveals what parameters work and common ways traders implement it badly.
November 10, 2026
0DTE Options: What the Data Shows About Zero-Days Trading
0DTE options exploded in popularity but the backtest data on retail profitability is sobering. Here is what the research actually shows.
November 13, 2026
Options Historical Data: Where Good Data Actually Comes From
Serious options backtesting requires serious data. The free options data available online is typically inadequate. Here are the data sources that actually work.
November 16, 2026
SPY vs ES Futures: When Each Makes Sense for Index Trading
SPY and ES futures both track the S&P 500 but have substantially different characteristics. Here is when each makes more sense for different trading goals.
November 19, 2026
Why Most Algorithmic Traders Fail: The Research-Backed Reasons
The failure rate for retail algorithmic traders is substantially higher than most realize. Here are the specific research-backed reasons most fail and what the successful ones do differently.
November 22, 2026
Position Sizing for Small Accounts: What Actually Works Under $25,000
Position sizing advice typically assumes substantial capital. Here is what actually works for small retail accounts under $25,000 constrained by pattern day trader rules.
November 25, 2026
The Research-to-Production Gap: Why Backtests Lie to You
The gap between backtest performance and live performance is typically substantial and systematic. Here are the specific reasons why and how to narrow the gap.
November 28, 2026
Capital Allocation Framework for Multiple Strategies
Running multiple trading strategies requires thinking about capital allocation. Here is the research-supported framework for allocating capital across uncorrelated strategies.
December 1, 2026
Why Simple Strategies Beat Complex Ones in Live Trading
Complex algorithmic strategies with machine learning typically underperform simple rule-based strategies in live retail trading. Here is why.
December 4, 2026
Overfitting Detection: The Specific Red Flags in Backtest Results
Overfitted strategies look great in backtests but fail in live trading. Here are the specific red flags to watch for in your backtest results.
December 7, 2026
The Research-to-Live Transition: How to Deploy a New Strategy Correctly
The transition from backtested strategy to live deployment is where many trading strategies fail. Here is the research-supported process for making the transition well.
December 10, 2026
Covered Call Strategy: What Decades of Data Show About the Income Approach
Covered calls are popular retail income strategy. Decades of backtest data reveals when they work well and when they significantly underperform.
December 13, 2026
Volatility as Asset Class: Trading VIX Products Successfully
VIX-related products have grown into major trading vehicles. Understanding how to trade them requires understanding their specific mechanics.
December 16, 2026
Choosing a Broker for Algorithmic Trading: What Actually Matters
Broker choice substantially affects algorithmic trading outcomes. Here are the specific criteria that matter for serious algorithmic trading beyond commission comparison.
December 19, 2026
Position Sizing: The Research-Backed Framework for Risk Management
Position sizing is more important than strategy selection for long-term results. Here is the research-supported framework for sizing positions in algorithmic trading.
December 22, 2026
Tax Considerations for Algorithmic Traders: What to Know Before Scaling
Taxes substantially affect algorithmic trading net returns. Here are the specific tax considerations retail algorithmic traders should understand before scaling up.
December 25, 2026
When to Abandon a Trading Strategy: The Research-Backed Framework
Knowing when to stop running a strategy is as important as knowing when to start. Here is the research-supported framework for strategy abandonment decisions.
December 28, 2026